WEF survey hints at global recession due to high inflation, falling wages

Amid elevated inflation and continuous fall in real wages, global recession seems inevitable, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) Chief Economists Outlook report. Expectations for growth have been pared back in all regions and almost three fourth of the respondents now consider a global recession to be at least somewhat likely, as per the survey report. Real wages are expected to continue falling across the world in 2022-2023 and the cost of living crisis is threatening social unrest, though inflationary pressures are expected to ease in the next year. The survey also cautioned that food security could be at risk across large areas of the globe over the next three years.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/chief-economists-survey-puts-spotlight-on-increasingly-likely-global-recession/articleshow/94516116.cms?from=mdr
2. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_2022.pdf
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.8 +0.5
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
81.4 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
81.0 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
81.9 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22
New projects 4.04 8.56 4.87 3.52
Completed projects 2.86 1.32 1.18 1.32
Stalled projects 0.08 0.43 0.53 0.06
Revived projects 1.98 0.33 0.29 0.08
Implementation stalled projects 0.66 0.09 0.29 0.26
Updated on: 28 Nov 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22
All listed Companies
 Income 23.4 20.8 40.3 24.7
 Expenses 21.3 19.8 41.5 26.2
 Net profit 35.4 31.3 21.1 -0.7
 PAT margin (%) 9.0 8.8 7.2 7.3
 Count of Cos. 4,755 4,668 4,672 4,451
Non-financial Companies
 Income 29.3 24.8 50.3 27.4
 Expenses 28.8 25.7 53.1 30.5
 Net profit 19.2 9.8 8.3 -21.9
 PAT margin (%) 7.5 7.6 5.7 5.1
 Net fixed assets 2.0 6.7
 Current assets 15.0 18.3
 Current liabilities 11.7 11.3
 Borrowings 3.6 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 11.3 7.3
 Count of Cos. 3,439 3,386 3,408 3,302
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 Nov 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -0.9 25.8
 Expenses 0.4 -3.2 24.7
 Net profit -3.8 75.3 61.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.4 8.0
 Assets 9.0 9.9 9.9
 Net worth 4.7 12.0 14.0
 RONW (%) 3.4 6.8 11.8
 Count of Cos. 33,286 32,160 8,832
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.1 -1.9 31.7
 Expenses -0.9 -3.9 31.5
 Net profit -20.4 62.3 59.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 3.9 6.9
 Net fixed assets 11.3 2.2 2.1
 Net worth 2.0 10.5 14.5
 RONW (%) 4.6 7.5 13.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.4 4.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 82 88 55
 Count of Cos. 26,274 25,220 6,566
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 27 Nov 2022 6:02PM