Black swan event may lead to USD 100 bln portfolio outflows: RBI article

A paper, titled ‘Capital Flows at Risk: India’s Experience’, authored by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Patra, Harendra Behera and Silu Muduli, lists three scenarios, which could lead to USD 100.6 billion portfolio outflows from India in a year. First, in response to a Covid-type contraction in GDP growth, second, in response to decline in interest rate differentials versus the United States (US) of the type seen during the Global Financial Crisis and third, a surge in India’s volatility index of the type seen during the same event. As per the article, in an extreme risk scenario or a black swan event in which there is a combination of all these shocks, there is a five per cent chance of outflows under portfolio investments of 7.7 per cent of GDP and short-term trade credit retrenchment of 3.9 per cent of GDP.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/adverse-global-events-may-lead-to-100-billion-portfolio-outflows-says-rbi-article/articleshow/92341729.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.4 +0.5
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
73.4 +0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
72.0 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
75.6 +0.6
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
New projects 3.34 3.91 7.76 3.79
Completed projects 1.28 2.76 1.25 1.05
Stalled projects 0.28 0.08 0.28 0.25
Revived projects 0.39 1.98 0.28 0.28
Implementation stalled projects 0.26 0.65 0.09 0.08
Updated on: 08 Aug 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
All listed Companies
 Income 27.5 23.4 20.9 39.6
 Expenses 26.7 21.3 19.8 42.5
 Net profit 55.8 35.4 32.1 9.4
 PAT margin (%) 9.6 9.0 9.1 7.1
 Count of Cos. 4,695 4,739 4,575 1,430
Non-financial Companies
 Income 35.6 29.1 24.9 51.9
 Expenses 35.9 28.7 25.6 57.5
 Net profit 59.4 19.1 12.5 -9.5
 PAT margin (%) 8.8 7.5 7.9 5.4
 Net fixed assets 4.9 2.2
 Current assets 10.9 15.2
 Current liabilities 0.8 11.7
 Borrowings 12.2 3.6
 Reserves & surplus 12.4 11.5
 Count of Cos. 3,382 3,424 3,317 1,041
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 08 Aug 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -0.9 18.9
 Expenses 0.4 -3.2 16.4
 Net profit -5.8 73.4 62.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.4 10.9
 Assets 9.0 9.9 10.1
 Net worth 4.8 11.7 12.6
 RONW (%) 3.4 6.9 13.4
 Count of Cos. 32,607 30,609 2,075
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.1 -2.0 27.5
 Expenses -0.9 -4.0 26.3
 Net profit -22.1 64.4 58.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 4.1 11.0
 Net fixed assets 11.2 2.2 3.3
 Net worth 2.1 10.7 13.1
 RONW (%) 4.6 7.8 17.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.4 6.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 82 86 44
 Count of Cos. 25,804 24,027 1,526
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 05 Aug 2022 10:42AM