Analyst forecast 35 bps rate hike in June 2022

Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase rates once again in its upcoming policy meeting in June 2022. In a poll of nearly 53 economists conducted by Reuters, 14 analysts expected the apex bank to raise rates by 35 basis points (bps) to 4.75 per cent, while 20 expected a larger move ranging from 40-75 basis points, including ten who projected a 50 basis point hike. Nomura has predicted the RBI to raise rates by 35 bps in June, followed by 50 bps in August and 25 bps at subsequent meetings until April 2023. It expects the repo rate to touch 5.75 per cent by December 2022 and 6.25 per cent by April 2023. Kotak Mahindra Bank’s senior economist Upasna Bhardwaj has forecast a 35 bps hike by the RBI. Economists at State Bank of India (SBI) expect the RBI to hike rates by another 0.75 per cent to get the repo rate back to the pre-pandemic level of 5.15 per cent by August 2022. As per their study of the Russian invasion’s impact on inflation, 59 per cent of the jump in prices is due to geopolitical events.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-to-hike-rates-again-in-june-as-inflation-pressures-mount/articleshow/91587760.cms
2. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-may-hike-rates-by-75-bps-by-august-say-sbi-economists-8518081.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
8.0 +0.5
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
68.6 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
67.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
70.1 +0.7
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22
New projects 2.94 3.26 3.53 5.91
Completed projects 0.71 1.28 2.76 1.18
Stalled projects 0.33 0.28 0.06 0.30
Revived projects 1.14 0.39 2.07 0.28
Implementation stalled projects 0.64 0.26 0.65 0.07
Updated on: 26 Jun 2022 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22
All listed Companies
 Income 42.3 27.5 23.4 21.6
 Expenses 41.8 26.7 21.3 20.5
 Net profit 140.6 55.3 35.4 32.8
 PAT margin (%) 8.9 9.6 9.0 9.1
 Count of Cos. 4,564 4,690 4,733 4,508
Non-financial Companies
 Income 61.1 35.7 29.1 25.9
 Expenses 62.4 36.0 28.8 26.6
 Net profit 195.2 59.5 19.0 12.9
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.8 7.5 7.9
 Net fixed assets 4.9 2.2
 Current assets 10.8 15.3
 Current liabilities 0.8 11.7
 Borrowings 12.1 3.7
 Reserves & surplus 12.4 11.5
 Count of Cos. 3,336 3,387 3,428 3,280
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 26 Jun 2022 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -1.1 13.6
 Expenses 0.4 -3.4 10.5
 Net profit -4.4 72.2 58.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.5 10.9
 Assets 9.0 9.7 9.3
 Net worth 4.8 11.7 9.9
 RONW (%) 3.4 6.9 13.5
 Count of Cos. 32,455 29,998 539
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.2 -2.3 26.3
 Expenses -1.0 -4.4 25.6
 Net profit -20.8 63.5 42.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 4.2 13.8
 Net fixed assets 11.2 2.0 -1.9
 Net worth 2.2 10.7 11.2
 RONW (%) 4.7 8.0 22.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.3
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.5 10.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 81 85 16
 Count of Cos. 25,743 23,675 386
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Jun 2022 11:46AM