UBS cuts India's GDP growth forecast for 2021-22 to 9.1%

Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2021-22 downwards to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent citing surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March 2022 quarter. However, it does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year. For 2022-23, UBS has revised its real GDP growth projection upwards to 8.2 per cent from 7.7 per cent estimated earlier. Estimating retail inflation at around five per cent for 2022-23, the Swiss brokerage stated that upside risks to inflation remain. The only mitigating factors are negative output gap, stabilising global commodity prices including oil and easing supply chain bottlenecks.