Uneven monsoon poses upside risks to inflation: Barclays

by Nidhi Bhati

Barclays Plc’s economist Rahul Bajoria is of the view that the progress of southwest monsoon during July-August is critical as it has a significant bearing on sowing and crop yield for the year. Bajoria cautioned that weak sowing, coupled with uneven monsoon, could affect crop yields and farm output, posing upside risks to inflation. Agriculture accounts for about 18 per cent of India’s economy. The weather pattern, which usually begins its four-month journey from the southern state of Kerala on 1 June 2021, stalled for three weeks after bringing higher-than-average rains in the first half of June.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/patchy-monsoon-rain-raises-growth-and-inflation-worries-in-india/articleshow/84577285.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.9 -1.9
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
52.1 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
54.8 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
48.0 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
New projects 1.99 1.25 1.87 1.81
Completed projects 0.76 0.85 1.10 0.57
Stalled projects 0.06 0.31 0.14 0.16
Revived projects 0.25 0.15 0.21 0.12
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.15 0.30 0.27
Updated on: 28 Jul 2021 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
All listed Companies
 Income -6.3 1.6 15.0 34.0
 Expenses -10.3 0.1 7.4 34.8
 Net profit 47.5 58.0 304.2 75.7
 PAT margin (%) 8.3 8.4 9.1 12.9
 Count of Cos. 4,419 4,433 4,211 382
Non-financial Companies
 Income -10.5 0.2 17.7 51.1
 Expenses -14.2 -0.7 10.6 56.0
 Net profit 31.7 54.4 218.4 81.9
 PAT margin (%) 8.1 8.8 9.3 13.0
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.3
 Current assets 0.7 4.8
 Current liabilities -2.7 0.8
 Borrowings 8.3 -4.3
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 12.3
 Count of Cos. 3,278 3,293 3,143 289
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 Jul 2021 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 2.8
 Expenses 13.8 -0.1 0.4
 Net profit 14.2 -7.3 33.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 9.5
 Assets 9.8 8.3 17.1
 Net worth 8.5 4.3 18.7
 RONW (%) 3.7 3.6 10.7
 Count of Cos. 31,492 30,180 1,463
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -0.8
 Expenses 14.4 -1.7 -2.3
 Net profit 20.6 -18.4 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.9
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.7 7.0
 Net worth 7.9 1.9 18.0
 RONW (%) 6.3 5.1 13.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 5.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 32
 Count of Cos. 25,254 24,140 1,091
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 Jul 2021 4:45PM