Impact of Covid-19 pandemic to spill over in FY23: Ind-Ra

by Nidhi Bhati

With the second wave of the pandemic disrupting supply chains for most industries, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects the overall recovery path to be pushed back for most of the service-oriented sectors beyond the current fiscal. However, fiscal 2021-22 is likely to be better than 2019-20 for most of the sectors due to an improvement in revenue benefitting largely from elevated prices and pent-up demand resulting in higher volume growth, volatile commodity prices along with interest rates reversal and the rupee fall, it added. The rating agency expects an overall median revenue growth of six per cent for corporates in 2021-22 over 2019-20 and 21.2 per cent over 2020-21. The forecast is more than its own earlier assumption of 4.4 per cent, though. Sectors linked to consumer discretionary expenditure and exports are likely to witness a lower-than-expected improvement,Ind-Ra noted. Within these sectors, airlines, real estate residential and hotels would be the most severely impacted and may not see recovery until second half of the current fiscal. Sectors like pharma, chemicals, cement and steel may witness some capex on account of higher liquidity cushion with them.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/recovery-path-for-several-sectors-delayed-due-to-second-covid-wave-india-ratings/articleshow/82373796.cms
2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/corporate-revenue-seen-growing-6-in-fy22-as-covid-2-0-takes-a-toll-india-ratings/articleshow/82370166.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
9.1 +2.5
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
49.1 -1.4
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
51.0 -1.1
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
46.1 -1.9
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.42 1.17 1.62
Completed projects 0.28 0.74 0.84 0.92
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.15 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 18 May 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 15.8
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.2 9.8
 Net profit -40.4 47.3 57.3 77.5
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.4 12.2
 Count of Cos. 4,404 4,404 4,378 547
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 20.4
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 14.8
 Net profit -55.9 31.5 53.6 66.8
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.8 12.6
 Net fixed assets 5.9 4.9
 Current assets 0.7 7.7
 Current liabilities -2.7 -5.6
 Borrowings 8.3 -8.0
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 16.8
 Count of Cos. 3,267 3,266 3,252 415
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 May 2021 8:29PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 -5.8
 Expenses 13.8 0.0 -6.9
 Net profit 15.2 -10.9 3.5
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 10.1
 Assets 9.8 8.1 2.4
 Net worth 8.5 4.4 0.7
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 11.8
 Count of Cos. 30,903 29,539 49
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -6.6
 Expenses 14.3 -1.6 -7.7
 Net profit 21.7 -21.2 2.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.5
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.4 -0.3
 Net worth 8.0 2.2 -0.1
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 21.1
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 38
 Count of Cos. 24,728 23,541 40
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 11 May 2021 3:39PM