Second Covid-19 wave in India could peak around mid-May: SBI

by Nidhi Bhati

The second wave of Covid-19 in India is likely to peak around mid-May 2021, economists at the State Bank of India (SBI) stated in a report. Country’s recovery rate has reduced to 82.5 per cent from 97 per cent since the beginning of the second wave. Based on other countries experience, economists believe that India might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be at 77.8 per cent. With increasing production capacity of vaccines and new vaccines getting imported, it is expected that by October 2021, 15 per cent of the population will be fully vaccinated. Economists stated that experience of other countries show infections stabilise after 15 per cent of population receive second dose. The report further noted that the SBI business activity index has dipped to a new low of 75.7, similar to the level it had attained in August 2020 owing to the disruption caused by increased lockdowns and restrictions imposed in various states. This is a 24.3 per cent fall from its pre-pandemic level.

References
1. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/second-covid-wave-in-india-could-peak-in-20-days-says-sbi-report-11619669833764.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
9.1 +2.5
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
49.1 -1.4
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
51.0 -1.1
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
46.1 -1.9
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.42 1.17 1.62
Completed projects 0.28 0.74 0.84 0.92
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.15 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 18 May 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 15.8
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.2 9.8
 Net profit -40.4 47.3 57.3 77.5
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.4 12.2
 Count of Cos. 4,404 4,404 4,378 547
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 20.4
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 14.8
 Net profit -55.9 31.5 53.6 66.8
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.8 12.6
 Net fixed assets 5.9 4.9
 Current assets 0.7 7.7
 Current liabilities -2.7 -5.6
 Borrowings 8.3 -8.0
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 16.8
 Count of Cos. 3,267 3,266 3,252 415
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 May 2021 8:29PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 -5.8
 Expenses 13.8 0.0 -6.9
 Net profit 15.2 -10.9 3.5
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 10.1
 Assets 9.8 8.1 2.4
 Net worth 8.5 4.4 0.7
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 11.8
 Count of Cos. 30,903 29,539 49
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -6.6
 Expenses 14.3 -1.6 -7.7
 Net profit 21.7 -21.2 2.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.5
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.4 -0.3
 Net worth 8.0 2.2 -0.1
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 21.1
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 38
 Count of Cos. 24,728 23,541 40
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 11 May 2021 3:39PM