Rising commodity prices to impact India's economy: Ind-Ra

by Nidhi Bhati

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has stated that a surge in global commodity prices would affect retail and wholesale inflation differently leading to policy implications. The agency has cited faster-than-expected recovery in demand, stimulus measures announced by the United States (US), rollout of Covid-19 vaccine and ultra-low interest rates as primary reasons for the surge in commodity prices. Ind-Ra’s analysis further shows that a price increase of one per cent in edible and crude oil will increase the retail and wholesale inflation by seven basis points (bp) and 13 bp, respectively. It opines that a higher retail inflation not accompanied by a commensurate increase in wage growth would adversely impact consumption demand and consequently investment revival in the economy.

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/surge-in-commodity-prices-to-impact-india-s-economy-says-ind-ra-121040300383_1.html
2. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rising-global-commodity-prices-to-imapct-indian-economy-ind-ra-6714831.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.5 +1.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
57.1 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
58.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
54.8 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.40 1.16 1.41
Completed projects 0.26 0.73 0.83 0.62
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.13
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 21 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 7.4
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.2 4.6
 Net profit -40.5 47.2 57.6 18.7
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.4 20.6
 Count of Cos. 4,399 4,401 4,372 41
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 8.2
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 6.0
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.3 16.7
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 20.2
 Net fixed assets 5.9 1.1
 Current assets 0.7 1.9
 Current liabilities -2.7 4.9
 Borrowings 8.3 5.8
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 5.9
 Count of Cos. 3,265 3,266 3,252 29
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 0.0 -6.6
 Expenses 13.6 0.0 -7.8
 Net profit 15.2 -9.5 1.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.2 10.4
 Assets 9.6 7.8 0.7
 Net worth 8.5 4.4 -0.1
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.6 11.7
 Count of Cos. 30,747 29,337 38
Non-financial Companies
 Income 13.9 -1.9 -7.0
 Expenses 14.1 -1.7 -8.3
 Net profit 21.6 -19.8 2.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.5 11.0
 Net fixed assets 5.5 8.9 -0.6
 Net worth 8.1 2.1 -0.2
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.1 13.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 23.1
 Net working capital cycle (days) 72 70 37
 Count of Cos. 24,611 23,388 30
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Apr 2021 9:56PM