Motilal Oswal expects real GDP to decline 1-2% y-o-y in Q3FY21

by Nidhi Bhati

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects India’s real GDP to decline one to two per cent on year-on-year (y-o-y) basis during the December 2020 quarter. The agency’s in-house Economic Activity Index (EAI) for India’s real GVA (EAI-GVA) grew by 4.8 per cent y-o-y in October 2020, marking the second consecutive month of growth, following an increase of 2.2 per cent y-o-y in September 2020. This is the first month in a year when non-farm activities (both industrial and services) grew faster than the farm sector. However, the EAI-GDP, continued to contract for the eighth consecutive month down by nine per cent y-o-y in October 2020, following a contraction of 8.1 per cent in the previous month.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/expect-real-gdp-to-decline-1-2-yoy-in-3q-fy21-report/articleshow/79578294.cms
2. https://www.bloombergquint.com/research-reports/motilal-oswal-indias-economic-activity-continued-to-improve-in-october-expect-real-gdp-to-decline-1-2-yoy-in-q3-fy21
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.2 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
53.9 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
55.7 +0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
51.1 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
New projects 3.80 0.83 1.05 0.86
Completed projects 1.77 0.25 0.72 0.58
Stalled projects 0.73 0.11 0.08 0.30
Revived projects 0.42 0.68 0.36 0.08
Implementation stalled projects 10.18 0.09 0.07 0.12
Updated on: 22 Jan 2021 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
All listed Companies
 Income -5.0 -27.6 -6.2 9.0
 Expenses -1.9 -27.9 -10.1 5.7
 Net profit -48.9 -40.2 45.2 36.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.3 5.3 8.3 19.0
 Count of Cos. 4,355 4,348 4,314 214
Non-financial Companies
 Income -9.0 -37.4 -10.4 11.2
 Expenses -4.9 -37.6 -14.0 6.8
 Net profit -50.1 -55.8 29.9 51.6
 PAT margin (%) 3.2 4.5 8.0 19.1
 Net fixed assets 13.3 5.9
 Current assets 3.6 0.8
 Current liabilities 6.2 -2.8
 Borrowings 15.8 8.1
 Reserves & surplus 1.3 4.5
 Count of Cos. 3,239 3,236 3,217 149
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 22 Jan 2021 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.5 0.3
 Expenses 9.9 13.8 0.5
 Net profit -41.4 18.5 -11.8
 PAT margin (%) 1.9 2.2 3.8
 Assets 10.9 9.5 9.3
 Net worth 7.4 8.5 4.7
 RONW (%) 3.4 4.0 5.5
 Count of Cos. 29,431 28,732 9,883
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.6 14.1 -2.6
 Expenses 8.8 14.3 -1.8
 Net profit -10.1 22.6 -24.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.0 3.9
 Net fixed assets 7.2 5.5 12.4
 Net worth 6.0 8.2 1.7
 RONW (%) 5.6 6.6 6.8
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.3 2.6
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 59
 Count of Cos. 23,809 23,199 7,312
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Jan 2021 2:19PM