ADB projects India's GDP to contract by 9% in 2020-21

by Nidhi Bhati

Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects the contraction in India’s real GDP for 2020-21 at nine per cent as the coronavirus pandemic weighs heavily on economic activity and consumer sentiment in the country. As mobility and business activities resume more widely, ADB projects a strong recovery for the Indian economy in 2021-22, with GDP growing by eight per cent. The agency further cautioned that the growth outlook remains highly vulnerable to either a prolonged outbreak or a resurgence of cases, with the country now having one of the highest number of Covid-19 cases globally. It further stated that inflation is expected to fall in the remainder of the current fiscal to 4.5 per cent with tamed food prices and decreased economic activity and then further decline to four per cent in 2021-22. India’s current account deficit is forecast to shrink to 0.3 per cent of GDP this fiscal year, then widen to 0.6 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 with exports expected to recover as global growth rebounds.

References
1. https://www.adb.org/news/amid-covid-19-indias-gdp-contract-9-percent-fy2020
2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/adb-expects-indias-economy-to-contract-by-9-in-fy2020-21-sees-strong-recovery-in-fy22/articleshow/78120768.cms
3. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/asias-coronavirus-battered-economy-will-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-early-1960s/articleshow/78119437.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.0 -0.8
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
46.5 -0.4
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
48.7 -0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
43.0 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.25 5.55 3.91 0.68
Completed projects 0.84 1.66 1.73 0.24
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.76 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.59
Implementation stalled projects 0.91 0.13 9.76 0.08
Updated on: 24 Sep 2020 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
All listed Companies
 Income -2.3 -1.7 -4.9 -28.1
 Expenses -3.1 -2.2 -1.8 -28.4
 Net profit -1.3 -10.8 -47.4 -41.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.1 2.4 5.3
 Count of Cos. 4,452 4,431 4,244 4,112
Non-financial Companies
 Income -6.3 -5.5 -8.9 -38.4
 Expenses -6.7 -6.4 -4.9 -38.4
 Net profit -13.8 -13.8 -48.4 -60.2
 PAT margin (%) 5.7 5.7 3.4 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 12.9
 Current assets 4.9 3.0
 Current liabilities 5.0 4.8
 Borrowings 8.3 14.7
 Reserves & surplus 5.7 2.1
 Count of Cos. 3,328 3,307 3,198 3,098
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 24 Sep 2020 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.4 1.2
 Expenses 9.9 13.6 1.6
 Net profit -40.3 21.9 -12.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 5.1
 Assets 10.9 9.3 9.9
 Net worth 7.5 8.6 6.8
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.3 7.2
 Count of Cos. 27,531 26,568 2,842
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.7 13.9 -2.3
 Expenses 8.8 14.0 -1.6
 Net profit -9.0 25.0 -19.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.2 5.8
 Net fixed assets 7.1 5.3 16.0
 Net worth 6.1 8.6 3.9
 RONW (%) 5.7 6.9 9.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 3.6
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 47
 Count of Cos. 22,401 21,603 2,134
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Sep 2020 8:59PM