Downside risks to growth remain significant: RBI

Due to heightened uncertainty about duration of pandemic

by Natasha Nadkar

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its first bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2020-21 released on 22 May 2020, mentioned that economic activity other that agriculture is likely to remain depressed in the first quarter of 2020-21 in view of the extended lockdown. Even though the lockdown might be lifted by end-May with some restrictions, economic activity even in the second quarter might remain subdued due to social distancing measures and the temporary shortage of labour. Recovery in economic activity is expected to begin in the third quarter and gain momentum in the fourth quarter as supply lines are gradually restored to normalcy and demand gradually revives. The central bank further believes that downside risks to domestic growth remain significant as there is still heightened uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic. However, the RBI has not provided a quantitative projection for GDP growth in the policy statement.

References
1. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=49843
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
23.6 -0.2
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
40.1 -0.9
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
41.4 -0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
38.0 -1.2
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
New projects 1.12 2.19 5.02 3.08
Completed projects 0.88 0.85 1.65 1.30
Stalled projects 0.13 0.41 0.60 0.59
Revived projects 0.29 0.54 0.83 0.42
Implementation stalled projects 0.98 0.85 0.15 5.79
Updated on: 30 May 2020 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.7 -2.2 -1.7 -0.2
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 1.2
 Net profit 17.4 -2.3 -9.9 -3.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.2 9.5
 Count of Cos. 4,471 4,430 4,379 366
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.4 -5.4 -4.1
 Expenses 1.7 -6.7 -6.3 -3.6
 Net profit -8.6 -14.5 -13.0 2.6
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.8 11.0
 Net fixed assets 10.4 21.5
 Current assets 4.9 9.1
 Current liabilities 4.9 8.1
 Borrowings 8.5 15.1
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 14.3
 Count of Cos. 3,349 3,325 3,280 294
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 30 May 2020 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY17 FY18 FY19
All Companies
 Income 6.1 8.1 14.7
 Expenses 6.1 9.6 15.0
 Net profit 26.2 -39.9 20.5
 PAT margin (%) 3.3 2.1 3.2
 Assets 8.6 10.9 9.9
 Net worth 9.6 7.5 9.3
 RONW (%) 5.8 3.5 5.3
 Count of Cos. 28,112 25,794 18,040
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.8 8.3 15.4
 Expenses 6.0 8.4 15.9
 Net profit 22.9 -8.7 18.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.8 4.0
 Net fixed assets 9.2 6.9 5.7
 Net worth 8.9 6.0 8.8
 RONW (%) 6.2 5.7 8.1
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 2.2 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 85 76 57
 Count of Cos. 22,951 21,018 14,184
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 29 May 2020 9:58AM