Inflation outlook highly uncertain: RBI

Due to outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic

by Natasha Nadkar

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its first bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2020-21 released on 22 May 2020, stated that the inflation outlook is highly uncertain due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Retail price inflation is expected to fall below four per cent in the third and fourth quarter of 2020-21. The central bank believes that the unusual spike in food inflation in April 2020 is expected to moderate as supply lines get restored in coming months with gradual relaxations in the lockdown. Further, international crude oil prices are likely to remain low. Soft global prices of metals and other industrial raw materials are also likely to keep input costs low for domestic firms. Deficient demand might hold down pressures on core inflation, although persisting supply dislocations impart uncertainty to the near term outlook. However, the RBI has not provided a quantitative projection for inflation in the policy statement.

References
1. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=49843
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
23.6 -0.2
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
40.1 -0.9
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
41.4 -0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
38.0 -1.2
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
New projects 1.12 2.19 5.02 3.08
Completed projects 0.88 0.85 1.65 1.30
Stalled projects 0.13 0.41 0.60 0.59
Revived projects 0.29 0.54 0.83 0.42
Implementation stalled projects 0.98 0.85 0.15 5.79
Updated on: 30 May 2020 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.7 -2.2 -1.7 -0.2
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 1.2
 Net profit 17.4 -2.3 -9.9 -3.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.2 9.5
 Count of Cos. 4,471 4,430 4,379 366
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.4 -5.4 -4.1
 Expenses 1.7 -6.7 -6.3 -3.6
 Net profit -8.6 -14.5 -13.0 2.6
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.8 11.0
 Net fixed assets 10.4 21.5
 Current assets 4.9 9.1
 Current liabilities 4.9 8.1
 Borrowings 8.5 15.1
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 14.3
 Count of Cos. 3,349 3,325 3,280 294
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 30 May 2020 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY17 FY18 FY19
All Companies
 Income 6.1 8.1 14.7
 Expenses 6.1 9.6 15.0
 Net profit 26.2 -39.9 20.5
 PAT margin (%) 3.3 2.1 3.2
 Assets 8.6 10.9 9.9
 Net worth 9.6 7.5 9.3
 RONW (%) 5.8 3.5 5.3
 Count of Cos. 28,112 25,794 18,040
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.8 8.3 15.4
 Expenses 6.0 8.4 15.9
 Net profit 22.9 -8.7 18.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.8 4.0
 Net fixed assets 9.2 6.9 5.7
 Net worth 8.9 6.0 8.8
 RONW (%) 6.2 5.7 8.1
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 2.2 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 85 76 57
 Count of Cos. 22,951 21,018 14,184
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 29 May 2020 9:58AM