Barclays slashes India's growth forecast for 2020-21 to 3.5%

by Manasi Swamy

Barclays has revised India’s growth forecast for 2020-21 downwards by 170 basis points to 3.5 per cent. It estimates the cumulative cost of lockdowns due Coronavirus at USD 120 billion or four per cent of GDP. Of this, USD 90 billion is attributed to the recent 21-day lockdown announced by the Central Government and the balance has been attributed to the lockdowns announed by various state governments earlier.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/experts-peg-indias-cost-of-covid-19-lockdown-at-usd-120-bn/articleshow/74805421.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
11.9 +0.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
81.3 -1.8
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
82.3 -1.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
83.7 -1.6
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
New projects 1.10 2.06 4.97 2.94
Completed projects 0.88 0.83 1.64 0.77
Stalled projects 0.13 0.41 0.60 0.49
Revived projects 0.29 0.52 0.83 0.41
Implementation stalled projects 0.98 0.85 0.15 1.24
Updated on: 10 Apr 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19
All listed Companies
 Income 8.5 4.7 -2.2 -1.7
 Expenses 5.4 2.7 -3.1 -2.2
 Net profit 213.1 17.4 -2.3 -10.3
 PAT margin (%) 3.6 6.2 5.3 5.2
 Count of Cos. 4,437 4,452 4,411 4,356
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.0 2.4 -6.4 -5.4
 Expenses 7.7 1.7 -6.7 -6.3
 Net profit 1.6 -8.5 -14.9 -13.1
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.3 5.8 5.8
 Net fixed assets 5.6 10.4
 Current assets 13.2 4.6
 Current liabilities 7.3 4.8
 Borrowings 12.3 8.4
 Reserves & surplus 7.2 5.9
 Count of Cos. 3,322 3,339 3,314 3,267
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 10 Apr 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY17 FY18 FY19
All Companies
 Income 6.1 8.1 14.9
 Expenses 6.1 9.5 15.3
 Net profit 26.4 -40.2 20.5
 PAT margin (%) 3.3 2.1 3.2
 Assets 8.6 10.9 9.7
 Net worth 9.6 7.6 8.7
 RONW (%) 5.8 3.5 5.3
 Count of Cos. 27,650 25,093 15,291
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.8 8.2 15.7
 Expenses 6.0 8.4 16.1
 Net profit 23.2 -9.1 19.5
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.8 4.1
 Net fixed assets 9.2 6.9 5.1
 Net worth 8.9 6.1 7.7
 RONW (%) 6.2 5.7 8.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 2.2 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 84 76 55
 Count of Cos. 22,609 20,449 11,909
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 05 Apr 2020 5:13PM