Centre faces uphill task of containing fiscal deficit for FY18

Tax receipts likely to fall short of Budgeted estimates

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

The government is likely to face an uphill task of containing the fiscal deficit at 3.2 per cent of GDP for 2017-18, as per a report in Business Standard. The report stated that the government needs additional revenue worth Rs.655.7 billion till March 2018. While India’s GDP has grown by 9.3 per cent in nominal terms during the first half of 2017-18, it is required to grow by at least 14 per cent during the second half to rein in the fiscal deficit. Besides, indirect tax revenues are likely to fall short of target by Rs.250-300 billion on account of muted GST collections. Non-tax revenue and direct tax collections may also decline by Rs.200 billion. While shortfall in revenue and fiscal deficit will compel the government to prune non-capital and capital expenditure, respectively, any drastic reduction in capital expenditure could jeopardise GDP growth as private investment is still weak.

References
1. https://www.pressreader.com/india/business-standard/20180103/281719794965875
2. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/taming-fiscal-deficit-at-3-2-of-gdp-is-a-tall-order-118010300014_1.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
6.2 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
93.5 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
93.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
92.8 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.33 1.38 1.24 2.15
Completed projects 0.87 1.21 1.02 1.07
Stalled projects 2.67 0.69 0.93 3.34
Revived projects 0.30 0.34 0.23 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.73 0.72 0.58 1.05
Updated on: 25 Apr 2018 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 9.0
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 12.9 9.6
 Net profit -19.9 -18.1 -13.9 6.9
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.9 14.7
 Count of Cos. 4,482 4,469 4,431 85
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.2 5.4
 Expenses 10.5 8.2 12.3 6.8
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 12.7 -1.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 13.2
 Net fixed assets 9.2 5.5
 Current assets 78.7 8.5
 Current liabilities 11.0 22.7
 Borrowings 10.4 -2.3
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 0.4
 Count of Cos. 3,460 3,443 3,428 61
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 25 Apr 2018 8:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.5 1.5 5.1 1.6
 Expenses 5.6 1.7 5.1 0.7
 Net profit 0.0 -10.3 23.7 9.2
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 2.8 3.6 8.3
 Assets 9.5 10.0 6.9 3.3
 Net worth 8.5 11.4 6.0 2.8
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 12.7
 Count of Cos. 25,647 23,668 20,755 19
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.7 0.6 4.7 1.5
 Expenses 4.9 0.0 5.2 0.6
 Net profit -8.6 18.4 18.0 10.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.5 3.1 7.4
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.3 5.4 4.4
 Net worth 6.9 12.0 4.4 2.9
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 6.0 11.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 11.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 38
 Count of Cos. 20,897 19,807 17,287 17
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Apr 2018 11:50AM

Time series available from 1990 onwards