India's GDP growth to inch up to 7.2% in FY19: BofA-ML

Consumption demand to be key driver

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

India’s economic growth is likely to continue with shallow recovery in 2018-19, as per a report by Bank of America Merill Lynch (BofA-ML). The bank expects growth to inch up to 7.2 per cent in 2018-19 and further up to 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 from 6.5 per cent in 2017-18. Increase in consumption demand along with increased spending on social sectors in the pre-poll year will boost economic activities. The report also mentions that a possible La Nina and farm loan waivers could support rural demand. Lower lending rates and hike in income tax exemption limit will encourage urban demand. Meanwhile, no upturn is anticipated in the capex cycle till 2019-20 on account of excess capacity.

References
1. http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/gdp-growth-in-fy19-likely-to-see-marginal-pick-up-at-7-2-says-report/963547/
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/gdp-growth-in-fy19-likely-to-see-marginal-pick-up-at-7-2-report-2455811.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.4 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
95.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.0 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.0 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
New projects 1.25 1.49 3.60 2.27
Completed projects 1.25 1.15 1.42 0.86
Stalled projects 0.69 0.88 3.41 0.30
Revived projects 0.34 0.22 0.26 0.22
Implementation stalled projects 0.78 0.71 1.92 0.03
Updated on: 16 Jul 2018 12:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
All listed Companies
 Income 7.9 12.0 10.4 18.1
 Expenses 9.0 13.0 17.1 21.2
 Net profit -18.0 -14.3 -80.7 7.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.5 4.8 1.2 19.3
 Count of Cos. 4,501 4,491 4,280 25
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.2 13.3 11.9 18.2
 Expenses 8.1 12.3 12.8 22.2
 Net profit -6.0 13.2 -1.6 5.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.4 6.6 20.1
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.9
 Current assets 2.9 8.2
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.6
 Borrowings 3.4 1.6
 Reserves & surplus 7.9 8.0
 Count of Cos. 3,466 3,469 3,317 19
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 16 Jul 2018 12:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.8 12.3
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.8 17.9
 Net profit 0.1 -9.3 26.2 -51.0
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 3.6
 Assets 9.5 10.2 7.3 14.1
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 7.0 11.0
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 4.8
 Count of Cos. 26,056 24,316 21,815 218
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 1.0 5.7 9.8
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.9 9.3
 Net profit -8.5 20.4 21.4 11.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.5 3.0 13.4
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.4 6.5 21.2
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 5.7 5.3
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.2 6.1 17.7
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 16.0
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 -12
 Count of Cos. 21,269 20,387 18,246 150
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Jul 2018 4:50PM