Professional forecasters revise GVA growth projections downwards at 6.5% for FY18

CPI inflation to rise to 4.4% in fourth quarter of FY18

by Natasha Nadkar

As per the results of the RBI’s Professional Forecasters Survey released on 6 December 2017, Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in FY18, a 10 basis points downward revision from the previous round. In FY19, GVA is expected to increase by 7.4 per cent. The Current Account Deficit (CAD) is expected to be at 1.6 per cent of GDP for FY18. It will grow at 1.7 per cent of GDP in FY19. CPI Inflation is expected to be at 3.9 per cent in the third quarter of FY18, 20 basis points lower than previous round estimates. Thereafter, CPI inflation is expected to rise to 4.4 per cent by the March quarter of FY18.

References
1. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18046
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
4.6 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
96.3 +0.7
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
95.7 +0.9
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
97.3 +0.5
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
New projects 2.33 3.83 2.07 1.03
Completed projects 1.01 1.94 1.16 1.00
Stalled projects 1.14 0.73 2.67 0.67
Revived projects 0.18 0.67 0.30 0.29
Implementation stalled projects 0.83 0.33 0.68 0.62
Updated on: 15 Dec 2017 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
All listed Companies
 Income 6.2 10.2 9.8 8.2
 Expenses 6.3 11.9 10.0 9.4
 Net profit 40.2 16.0 -19.6 -18.1
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.6
 Count of Cos. 4,509 4,444 4,325 4,156
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.9 11.8 10.4 8.1
 Expenses 7.2 15.6 10.6 8.0
 Net profit 24.5 -2.3 -25.0 -5.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.2 5.2 6.4
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.3
 Current assets 2.7 80.1
 Current liabilities 8.8 10.2
 Borrowings 4.8 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 6.3 5.3
 Count of Cos. 3,484 3,440 3,358 3,226
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 15 Dec 2017 8:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.2 1.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.9 5.2 1.2 6.9
 Net profit -2.3 1.4 -13.1 20.6
 PAT margin (%) 3.2 3.2 2.9 6.4
 Assets 12.3 9.4 9.7 8.6
 Net worth 9.6 8.7 10.6 7.9
 RONW (%) 6.2 6.1 5.1 9.2
 Count of Cos. 24,045 23,818 20,791 4,756
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.3 0.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.3 4.5 -0.6 7.5
 Net profit -2.7 -5.8 11.6 14.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.1 2.6 6.3
 Net fixed assets 11.6 13.3 15.5 7.3
 Net worth 8.1 7.1 11.0 6.3
 RONW (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 10.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 66 49
 Count of Cos. 19,288 19,270 17,281 3,624
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Dec 2017 11:59AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices