Revenue impact of GST rate cuts likely to be higher than Rs.200 bln

Businesses to use tax credits to offset reduced tax liability

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

The recent lowering of GST rates on about 200 items is likely to have a revenue implication of more than Rs.200 billion in the short-term, as per an article in Financial Express. Tax experts believe that businesses will prefer to use their input tax credits from the 28 per cent tax rate to meet their reduced output tax liability at 18 per cent over the next three to four months rather than paying in cash. Consequently, the government may see a depletion in tax revenue for the next four months which needs to be evaluated. Furthermore, if the GST revenue collections does fall much more than the anticipated levels, the government may struggle to compensate states and meet its own budgetary target. The government is expecting an expansion of the tax base and improved compliance to offset reduction in revenues on account of rate cuts.

References
1. http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/gst-council-rate-cuts-revenue-impact-higher-than-estimate-say-experts/931822/
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.5 -0.2
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
95.8 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
93.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
98.7 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
New projects 2.33 3.79 2.06 0.99
Completed projects 1.01 1.94 1.14 0.99
Stalled projects 1.13 0.70 2.66 0.64
Revived projects 0.18 0.67 0.30 0.22
Implementation stalled projects 0.82 0.33 0.67 0.61
Updated on: 20 Nov 2017 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
All listed Companies
 Income 6.2 10.2 9.9 8.6
 Expenses 6.3 11.9 10.1 9.9
 Net profit 40.3 15.7 -19.1 -17.8
 PAT margin (%) 6.1 6.0 5.4 6.0
 Count of Cos. 4,507 4,438 4,288 2,730
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.9 11.8 10.6 8.6
 Expenses 7.2 15.6 10.8 8.6
 Net profit 24.5 -2.5 -24.4 -4.9
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.2 5.3 6.9
 Net fixed assets 6.9 10.0
 Current assets 2.6 2.1
 Current liabilities 8.8 9.9
 Borrowings 4.8 4.1
 Reserves & surplus 6.2 8.1
 Count of Cos. 3,488 3,439 3,340 1,994
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Nov 2017 8:29PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.2 1.1 6.6
 Expenses 9.9 5.2 1.2 6.8
 Net profit -2.2 1.6 -12.9 20.2
 PAT margin (%) 3.2 3.2 2.9 6.5
 Assets 12.3 9.4 9.6 8.8
 Net worth 9.6 8.7 10.3 8.5
 RONW (%) 6.2 6.1 5.1 9.6
 Count of Cos. 23,895 23,579 20,184 3,629
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.3 0.1 6.5
 Expenses 9.3 4.5 -0.6 7.4
 Net profit -2.7 -5.5 11.5 14.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.1 2.6 6.5
 Net fixed assets 11.6 13.4 15.1 7.3
 Net worth 8.2 7.1 10.6 7.2
 RONW (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 11.0
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 66 50
 Count of Cos. 19,154 19,053 16,707 2,782
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 15 Nov 2017 2:29PM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices