Farm loan waivers to push up combined fiscal deficit by 40 bps: RBI paper

Inflation to see a permanent rise of 20 bps

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

Farm loan waivers will result in a 40 basis points increase in combined fiscal deficit in 2017-18, and push up inflation by 20 basis points on permanent basis (assuming all other things remain same), according to a study by the RBI staff. The paper estimates total farm waivers during 2017-18 to amount to Rs. 881 billion, equivalent to 0.5 per cent of GDP. This will take the outstanding amount under debt waivers offered by AP, Telangana, TN, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab and Karnataka since 2014 up to Rs.1.3 trillion.

References
1. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/farm-debt-waivers-may-lead-to-20-bps-permanent-rise-in-inflation-rbi-study-117091101585_1.html
2. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/farm-loan-waiver-may-push-inflation-by-0-2-per-cent-rbi-paper/articleshow/60467813.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
4.3 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
94.7 +0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
94.5 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.0 +0.5
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17
New projects 2.38 1.50 2.97 1.68
Completed projects 2.23 0.95 1.86 1.12
Stalled projects 0.65 1.01 0.35 2.66
Revived projects 0.91 0.18 0.62 0.29
Implementation stalled projects 0.38 0.82 0.33 0.67
Updated on: 21 Sep 2017 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17
All listed Companies
 Income 2.1 6.2 10.3 10.2
 Expenses 1.9 6.4 11.9 10.5
 Net profit 14.6 40.3 17.0 -18.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.9 6.1 6.1 5.4
 Count of Cos. 4,500 4,502 4,423 4,199
Non-financial Companies
 Income 0.6 6.0 11.8 10.8
 Expenses -0.2 7.3 15.6 11.0
 Net profit 26.6 24.6 -1.9 -23.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.9 6.2 6.3 5.3
 Net fixed assets -9.2 7.6
 Current assets 8.1 2.2
 Current liabilities 11.6 8.6
 Borrowings 3.1 5.0
 Reserves & surplus 8.4 6.5
 Count of Cos. 3,481 3,487 3,435 3,281
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Sep 2017 8:30PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
All Companies
 Income 12.6 10.0 5.0 1.0
 Expenses 12.8 9.9 5.1 1.2
 Net profit 1.0 -2.2 1.1 -15.2
 PAT margin (%) 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.0
 Assets 14.3 12.3 9.4 8.8
 Net worth 9.6 9.6 8.8 7.7
 RONW (%) 6.8 6.2 6.1 5.3
 Count of Cos. 25,932 23,621 23,131 19,375
Non-financial Companies
 Income 11.9 9.7 4.1 0.0
 Expenses 12.3 9.3 4.3 -0.6
 Net profit -8.4 -2.4 -6.3 6.5
 PAT margin (%) 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.7
 Net fixed assets 12.9 11.6 13.1 13.9
 Net worth 7.9 8.2 7.3 7.0
 RONW (%) 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0
 Net working capital cycle (days) 72 69 67 67
 Count of Cos. 20,312 18,893 18,620 15,945
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Sep 2017 10:15AM

Time-series available since 2007-08

Growth dropped to 5-quarter low during Q1 2017-18