Need for revision in inflation forecasting model: Economic Survey

Actual inflation at least 100 bps below RBI's projection in last 14 quarters

by Manasi Swamy

The mid-year Economic Survey stresses on the need to revise India’s inflation forecasting model such that the structural changes can be captured while estimating the future trajectory. The international oil market and domestic agriculture have seen structural changes. Hence, using historical context to explain them is meaningless. To strengthen the argument, the survey cites that RBI’s inflation forecast has been at least 100 basis points higher than the actual inflation numbers in the last 14 quarters.

References
1. http://indiabudget.gov.in/es2016-17/echapter_vol2.pdf
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.4 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
95.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.0 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.0 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
New projects 1.25 1.49 3.60 2.27
Completed projects 1.25 1.15 1.42 0.86
Stalled projects 0.69 0.88 3.41 0.30
Revived projects 0.34 0.22 0.26 0.22
Implementation stalled projects 0.78 0.71 1.92 0.03
Updated on: 16 Jul 2018 12:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
All listed Companies
 Income 7.9 12.0 10.4 18.1
 Expenses 9.0 13.0 17.1 21.2
 Net profit -18.0 -14.3 -80.7 7.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.5 4.8 1.2 19.3
 Count of Cos. 4,501 4,491 4,280 25
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.2 13.3 11.9 18.2
 Expenses 8.1 12.3 12.8 22.2
 Net profit -6.0 13.2 -1.6 5.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.4 6.6 20.1
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.9
 Current assets 2.9 8.2
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.6
 Borrowings 3.4 1.6
 Reserves & surplus 7.9 8.0
 Count of Cos. 3,466 3,469 3,317 19
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 16 Jul 2018 12:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.8 12.3
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.8 17.9
 Net profit 0.1 -9.3 26.2 -51.0
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 3.6
 Assets 9.5 10.2 7.3 14.1
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 7.0 11.0
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 4.8
 Count of Cos. 26,056 24,316 21,815 218
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 1.0 5.7 9.8
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.9 9.3
 Net profit -8.5 20.4 21.4 11.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.5 3.0 13.4
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.4 6.5 21.2
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 5.7 5.3
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.2 6.1 17.7
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 16.0
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 -12
 Count of Cos. 21,269 20,387 18,246 150
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Jul 2018 4:50PM