ET CEO poll reveals investment constraints

by Mahesh Vyas

The Economic Times of May 16 carried a front-page story based on a poll of CEOs, financial markets and the common man. The poll of CEOs provides some clues on the investment climate in the country. The survey does not ask questions about investments but nevertheless it provides useful insights on the same. What CEOs say is important, because they take decisions to invest, or not to invest.

The survey polled 59 CEOs.

46 per cent of the polled CEOs said that the Modi government’s performance in the past three years was excellent and 41 per cent said that it was average. No one said that it was bad but a significant 14 per cent preferred to not respond. This means that of the 59 CEOs polled, 27 said that Modi government’s performance was excellent and 24 said that the performance was average while the remaining 8 preferred to not respond. A small sample, but as we shall see, a reasonably potent one.

The choice of responses sought is interesting - it is either excellent, or average or bad. "Average" is not good and so, if a CEO wanted to say good, the only choice was "excellent". Likewise, nobody would like to say "bad" and the way out was to not respond. CEO polls usually call for politeness and here the survey design seems to provide an enabling device.

The survey is a lot more potent when it identifies the successes and failures of Modi Sarkar. Infrastructure investments is seen as the single biggest achievement. Corruption comes next. Thirty per cent of the CEOs say that the biggest achievement of Modi Sarkar is that it is corruption free. However, not many (only 10 per cent) believe that the fight against black economy is the biggest achievement. In fact, 37 per cent said that they weren’t sure that the government’s drive against black economy was successful.

That the Modi Sarkar is free of corruption has been an enduring theme through the entire tenure of this government. Why has this not showed up in greater investments? If government corruption is not a hurdle, then investments should have picked up since it was believed that corruption of the earlier government had held up large investments.

Evidently, being corruption-free maybe a necessary condition but it is not a sufficient condition for investments and growth.

The CEO survey bring this out nicely. 44 per cent of these CEOs said that the single largest failure of the Modi government is on the jobs growth front. And, another 29 per cent said that the biggest failure was in tackling NPAs.

The failure on jobs and on NPAs is in fact a reflection of the government’s failure on investments and growth.

Most CEOs are not exactly gung-ho on demand. 47 per cent said demand growth was average, another 9 per cent said it was weak. Only 41 per cent said that demand for their goods and services was strong. Even while being polite and possibly diplomatic to a popular survey, the CEOs have revealed their woes on growth prospects.

Their actions are a lot more stark. In the first half of 2016-17, net fixed assets of listed companies shrank by 9 per cent. This is the first time in the recorded history of interim financial results that companies saw their assets base shrink. And, this happened before demonetisation. Very limited financial results - of only 605 companies (out of a total of about 3,500) show that net fixed assets grew by 9.5 per cent in the second half. The complete picture will become clear only in a few more weeks. But, it may not be too wrong to say that 2016-17 will be the worst year in the history of corporate India when it comes to growth in assets. Companies are simply not willing to wager their resources on an uncertain future. Their polite responses to surveys notwithstanding.

Net fixed assets of listed companies had grown at 8.5 per cent per annum during the past four years. A revival in the investment cycle would require assets to grow by at least 15 per cent per annum. This is still a distant dream.

The ET survey of CEOs does not give much hope that this is likely to happen any time soon independent of whether India Inc is impressed with Modi Sarkar or not.

CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
4.6 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
96.3 +0.7
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
95.7 +0.9
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
97.3 +0.5
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
New projects 2.33 3.83 2.07 1.03
Completed projects 1.01 1.94 1.16 1.00
Stalled projects 1.14 0.73 2.67 0.67
Revived projects 0.18 0.67 0.30 0.29
Implementation stalled projects 0.83 0.33 0.68 0.62
Updated on: 15 Dec 2017 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
All listed Companies
 Income 6.2 10.2 9.8 8.2
 Expenses 6.3 11.9 10.0 9.4
 Net profit 40.2 16.0 -19.6 -18.1
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.6
 Count of Cos. 4,509 4,444 4,325 4,156
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.9 11.8 10.4 8.1
 Expenses 7.2 15.6 10.6 8.0
 Net profit 24.5 -2.3 -25.0 -5.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.2 5.2 6.4
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.3
 Current assets 2.7 80.1
 Current liabilities 8.8 10.2
 Borrowings 4.8 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 6.3 5.3
 Count of Cos. 3,484 3,440 3,358 3,226
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 15 Dec 2017 8:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.2 1.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.9 5.2 1.2 6.9
 Net profit -2.3 1.4 -13.1 20.6
 PAT margin (%) 3.2 3.2 2.9 6.4
 Assets 12.3 9.4 9.7 8.6
 Net worth 9.6 8.7 10.6 7.9
 RONW (%) 6.2 6.1 5.1 9.2
 Count of Cos. 24,045 23,818 20,791 4,756
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.3 0.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.3 4.5 -0.6 7.5
 Net profit -2.7 -5.8 11.6 14.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.1 2.6 6.3
 Net fixed assets 11.6 13.3 15.5 7.3
 Net worth 8.1 7.1 11.0 6.3
 RONW (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 10.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 66 49
 Count of Cos. 19,288 19,270 17,281 3,624
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Dec 2017 11:59AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices