Enterprise to pay biggest price for demonetisation

by Mahesh Vyas

Enterprise is expected to pay the biggest price of the demonetisation exercise.

Enterprise includes all businesses that produce goods and services and are involved in the entire supply chain of these. It includes farmers, input suppliers, transporters, wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, stockists and distributors, malls and other retail outlets, restaurants, entertainment and other enterprises.

The entire supply chain of goods and services stands to suffer a massive liquidity shock. The received wisdom is that a large part of the Indian supply chain is cash-based. This cash-based economy is unable to continue transactions because of the sudden fall in availability of cash. It is unable to meet business and financial obligations and unable to liquidate stocks and receivables into cash. In fact, it is very busy dealing in converting the old currency it used to conduct business hitherto.

The impact of a broken supply chain would play out over several quarters. It would impact capacity utilisation of manufacturing companies and employment as well. Over the medium-to-long term this will impact investments as well. Our effort here is to limit our assessment to the 50-day window when the damage is only because of a sharp fall in immediate liquidity availability.

This immediate impact would be in the fall in sales because of a fall in liquidity. Households would reduce discretionary consumption spending during the 50-day period. We estimate this fall by using the household consumption expenditure data available in CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids survey.

The annual consumption expenditure of households is estimated at Rs.31 trillion. Of this, Rs.22 trillion is non-discretionary expenses such as basic food items, house rent, water charges, transport, communication, education, medicines, EMIs, etc. Discretionary expenses which include intoxicants, clothing, cosmetics, home appliances, restaurants and recreation account for about Rs.9 trillion.

Most of the discretionary spending is in cash. Excluding those expenses that are clearly non-cash does not make a material difference to the estimate of discretionary expenses.

The above leads to an estimate of an average spend of Rs.12 billion by households on cash discretionary items. It is this 12 billion rupees market that is severely hit by the liquidity crunch. We expect this market to take a 50 per cent hit during the 50 day period. This translates into a loss of Rs.615 billion.

The impact of this loss would reverberate through the supply chain over time. But, the immediate impact would be of the order of Rs.615 billion. For comparison, the combined sales of 69 FMCG companies in 2015-16 was Rs.2.7 trillion.

CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.1 -0.7
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
58.2 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
60.1 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
55.2 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
New projects 2.53 1.42 2.13 2.74
Completed projects 0.77 0.86 1.15 0.71
Stalled projects 0.08 0.31 0.26 0.32
Revived projects 0.27 0.15 0.22 0.12
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.20 0.32 0.25
Updated on: 26 Sep 2021 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
All listed Companies
 Income -6.3 1.6 14.8 42.0
 Expenses -10.3 0.1 7.3 42.2
 Net profit 47.9 58.3 325.4 124.7
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.4 8.9 9.0
 Count of Cos. 4,430 4,450 4,355 4,324
Non-financial Companies
 Income -10.5 0.2 17.5 60.8
 Expenses -14.2 -0.8 10.4 62.9
 Net profit 31.8 54.7 232.8 178.2
 PAT margin (%) 8.1 8.8 9.0 8.4
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.3
 Current assets 0.8 4.6
 Current liabilities -1.8 0.8
 Borrowings 8.5 -4.2
 Reserves & surplus 3.7 12.0
 Count of Cos. 3,282 3,304 3,251 3,239
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 26 Sep 2021 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 0.2 -1.4
 Expenses 13.6 0.2 -3.7
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 39.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 7.7
 Assets 9.8 8.5 13.4
 Net worth 8.5 4.4 15.1
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 9.5
 Count of Cos. 31,749 30,612 4,154
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.0 -1.7 -3.9
 Expenses 14.2 -1.4 -5.6
 Net profit 21.4 -21.1 25.5
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 7.3
 Net fixed assets 5.6 10.0 3.6
 Net worth 7.9 2.1 13.3
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 10.7
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.6
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 4.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 74 81 64
 Count of Cos. 25,424 24,480 3,033
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Sep 2021 8:43AM