31% of India's growth story is about discrepancies

GDP growth for FY16 drops to 5.2% without discrepancies

by Manasi Swamy

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) sprung a pleasant surprise yesterday by announcing a handsome 7.9 per cent growth in India’s GDP for the last quarter of 2015-16. The CSO pegged the GDP growth for the entire fiscal year at 7.6 per cent.

Prima facie, the growth numbers look impressive. But, they are impressive only because of discrepancies.

Of the 7.6 per cent growth in GDP for the year, 2.4 per cent came form discrepancies. The discrepancies amounted to Rs.2.2 trillion. Excluding discrepancies, India’s GDP would have grown by 5.2 per cent in 2015-16, as against a 7.1 per cent growth in 2014-15, which also excludes discrepancies. That means the entire improvement or acceleration in growth rests upon the discrepancies figures.

Story of the January-March 2016 quarter, when the Indian economy almost touched the 8 per cent magic growth figure, is no different. Of the 7.9 per cent growth in GDP during the quarter, 4.1 per cent came from discrepancies. Excluding discrepancies, the 3.9 per cent growth in GDP would have been the lowest in last 13 quarters.

Role of discrepancies in GDP growth
Year GDP growth Contribution of discrepancies GDP Discrepancies Discrepancies’ share in GDP
  (%) (%) Rs.billion Rs.billion (%)
2012-13 5.6 1.1 92,269 706 0.8
2013-14 6.6 -1.2 98,394 -441 -0.4
2014-15 7.2 0.1 105,522 -353 -0.3
2015-16 7.6 2.4 113,502 2,148 1.9

CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.5 -0.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
58.0 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
60.6 +0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
53.9 -0.8
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21
New projects 1.50 2.20 2.55 1.10
Completed projects 0.87 1.17 0.73 0.92
Stalled projects 0.30 0.26 0.32 0.03
Revived projects 0.15 0.22 0.12 0.19
Implementation stalled projects 0.20 0.32 0.25 0.22
Updated on: 21 Oct 2021 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21
All listed Companies
 Income 1.6 14.9 42.0 18.3
 Expenses 0.1 7.3 42.2 18.2
 Net profit 58.3 326.2 125.3 28.0
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.9 9.0 17.1
 Count of Cos. 4,451 4,364 4,348 178
Non-financial Companies
 Income 0.1 17.4 60.7 21.8
 Expenses -0.7 10.5 62.8 23.2
 Net profit 52.4 221.6 179.7 27.0
 PAT margin (%) 8.8 9.1 8.4 16.3
 Net fixed assets 2.3 7.4
 Current assets 4.4 13.2
 Current liabilities 0.8 17.4
 Borrowings -4.3 3.0
 Reserves & surplus 11.9 4.2
 Count of Cos. 3,299 3,252 3,251 130
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Oct 2021 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 0.2 -1.7
 Expenses 13.6 0.2 -4.3
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 50.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 7.3
 Assets 9.8 8.5 12.9
 Net worth 8.5 4.5 13.7
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 9.0
 Count of Cos. 32,100 31,012 5,853
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.0 -1.7 -4.1
 Expenses 14.2 -1.4 -6.2
 Net profit 21.2 -21.2 37.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.3 6.8
 Net fixed assets 5.6 10.0 2.6
 Net worth 7.9 2.1 11.6
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 9.9
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 1.9 3.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 74 81 70
 Count of Cos. 25,659 24,739 4,261
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Oct 2021 1:55PM